Projections
Several GrowPanel reports draw a projection for the period that's still in progress—an estimate of where the current month, quarter, or year will land if activity continues at the pace seen so far. It appears as a dimmed, striped extension on the final bar of a chart, and as a → value next to the actual number in tables.
Projections exist to answer one mid-period question: am I on track? They let you judge, halfway through a month, whether new MRR, cashflow, or lead volume is trending above or below where you'd expect—without waiting for the period to close.
How the projection is calculated
The projection is a simple linear extrapolation. GrowPanel takes what has accumulated so far in the current period and scales it up by the fraction of the period that has elapsed:
projected = value_so_far × (total days in period ÷ days elapsed)
In other words, it assumes the remainder of the period continues at the same average daily rate as the part already observed.
Example (monthly view):
- It's the 10th of a 30-day month
- 300 new MRR has been recorded so far
- Projection: 300 × (30 ÷ 10) = 900 new MRR
The same logic applies to weekly, quarterly, and yearly intervals—the multiplier is just based on the days in that period. Because it's a straight-line estimate, the projection carries no assumptions about seasonality, billing-cycle timing, or growth curves; it only extends the current average forward.
When a projection is shown
A projection is only drawn for the current, incomplete period. Completed periods always show actuals—never an estimate.
To keep early-period noise from producing wild numbers, GrowPanel waits until a meaningful part of the period has elapsed before it draws a projection:
| Interval | Projection appears |
|---|---|
| Month | From around the 10th of the month onward |
| Quarter | After roughly the first three weeks of the quarter |
| Year | From March onward |
| Week / Day | On the Leads and Trials reports, as soon as the period is underway |
On the movement reports (MRR, ARR, Subscribers), a projection also requires a minimum volume—more than 10 customers in that movement type so far this period—so that a tiny early count doesn't get multiplied into an unrealistic figure.
If these conditions aren't met, no projected value is drawn and you'll only see the actual-so-far number.
Which reports use projections
| Report | What is projected |
|---|---|
| MRR & ARR movements | New, Expansion, Contraction, Churn, and Reactivation for the current period |
| Subscriber movements | New, Reactivation, and Churn subscriber counts |
| Cashflow | Every cash component—recurring revenue, one-time payments, refunds, discounts, fees, taxes |
| Leads | End-of-period lead and trial volume |
| Trials | End-of-period trial volume |
One exception: trial-to-paid conversion
The projected conversion count and trial-to-paid rate on the Leads and Trials reports are not a straight linear extrapolation. Because trials convert with a lag—a customer who started a trial today may not become paid for days or weeks—a pure days-elapsed multiplier would badly under-count. Instead, GrowPanel bases this projection on the recent conversion pace of comparable past cohorts (a short moving average), so it reflects how trials from this period are realistically expected to convert.
How to read a projection
- It firms up over time. Early in a period the projection swings easily—one busy or quiet day moves it a lot. As more of the period elapses, the multiplier shrinks and the estimate stabilizes.
- It assumes a flat daily rate. The projection won't anticipate a known spike or lull: a product launch, an end-of-month billing run, or a seasonal weekend dip aren't factored in. Read it as a directional signal, not a forecast you can commit to.
- Treat it as "on track / off track," not a target. Its job is to tell you, mid-period, whether you're pacing ahead of or behind expectations—giving you time to react while the period is still open.
